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Pauline Read on Cyprus Talks Doomed?
North Cyprus President Mehmet Ali Talat, says that he is concerned that the current round of talks will not be completed before the Presidential elections in the north. He has made it clear that if the talks are not completed before the elections then he will not be standing as a candidate. North Cyprus Prime Minister Derviş Eroğlu, of the ruling UBP party, is expected to run for the position and is currently the front runner. Eroğlu’s view of the talks is scepticism that only a two state solution would be viable.
If the talks with south Cyprus President, Dimitris Christofias, are not completed before the Presidential elections and, as expected, Eroğlu becomes President, then there seems little hope of an agreement being reached between him and Christofias. When south Cyprus was allowed to enter the EU it was on the basis that a solution to the Cyprus Problem was not needed, now this same condition is being sought for Turkey’s accession to the EU.
Greek Cypriots are unhappy that Britain has stated at Brussels that a solution to the Cyprus Problem should not be a pre-condition to Turkey’s entry to the EU. The sticking point is Turkey’s refusal to open its ports and airports to vessels and aircraft bearing the Cypriot flag and for them to normalise its relations with south Cyprus. If this was seen to be part of the Cyprus Problem, and therefore not a precondition to Turkey’s EU entry, then whether or not the current Cyprus Talks reach a conclusion would become irrelevant to Turkey’s international ambitions.
number of views: 155
Even though we might be wrong, the general belief amongst GCs is that while we politically distanced our selves from Greece, TCs fully depend on Turkey. We believe that the elected leader of the TC community is just a Muppet forced to follow the policy set by the mighty security council in Turkey. Therefore, as Turkey will always run the show (and not TCs themselves) it is rather unlikely that the elections in the north will affect the peace talks.
This is a genuine comment and I would appreciate your views on the subject.
Regarding Turkey’s international ambitions I would like to express my disagreement. Even though there are some member states that favour this approach there are also others that do not. Please also note that any EU state, including Cyprus, can veto and therefore block Turkey’s accession negotiations.
Regardless of whether the solution of the Cyprus problem is a pre-condition for Turkey’s accession or not Turkey should still open its ports and airports to vessels and aircrafts bearing the Cypriot flag simply because this is a commitment already undertaken by signing the Ankara Protocol.
Despite various comments and statements made by EU officials as well as by member state officials everyone knows the truth: The solution of the Cyprus problem is a pre-condition. Is there anyone who really believes that Cyprus will accept Turkey joining the union if it still occupies 38% of the island? Is it practically possible for Turkey to join the union without recognizing one of its member states? How will it work? How will Turkey fulfill its obligations towards member states if one of them is not even recognized?
Again, the general belief amongst GCs is that Turkey (and its friends) are desperate to solve the Cyprus problem so that it does not affect Turkey’s accession, however, being the strong side they are not willing to make any compromises. The statement made by the UK that you mention in your article as well as many other statements made in the past by “pro-Turkish” member states aim in one thing: To exert pressure on the Republic of Cyprus and force them to accept a solution which satisfies both Turkey and the UK even though it might not be the best for Cypriots themselves.
Genuine comments will be appreciated.
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Kyri, as far as I understand it, the currently elected UBP party see Turkey as the motherland. A UBP President would have that perspective. The current President is out of favour with Turkey because that is not his party’s view. You are currently right about member states, but as to the future? You are right about opening ports but whether this will remain a a precondition only time will tell. Not all member states play ball, e.g. France in the past rejecting British beef despite the EU insisting that they did. Yes, it’s a huge game of poker. Wish I could spend more time answering but your comment is a good basis for an article and I would have published it as such, especially if you could have included the TC view for balance.
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lol
You sound like me now
I do not know the TC view ! Sad but true. I would personally perceive your article as their view but I am sure there is more to it !
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Talat stepping-down and Eroglu stepping-forward will mean that any referendum in the TRNC, (if it gets that far) will be influenced accordingly. It is one thing for Turkey to “run the show” but another to get the TCs to vote any particular way, if they are persuaded not to. In 2004 the GCs were persuaded at the last moment to vote NO. The same could happen here in 2010.
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Vaughan,
In the republic we had a president who could actually implement his own policy. The Greek government silently wished for a “YES” vote but in public they just said that the GCs can choose as they wish. On the other hand the opposition (who is now in power) openly said “YES”.
Is there such a possibility in the North? If for example Talat steps down and Eroglou becomes the new negotiator will anything change? It is our beleif that he, like Talat, will simply express Turkey’s demands.
I know that Turkey running the show is a different story than getting the votes but is it really possible that TC political parties will be “allowed” to “direct” their voters towards a voting something against Turkey’s wishes?
In 2004 I do not think that more than 5-10% of voters changed their mind at the last moment. Even if all political parties said YES that specific plan would never pass….and the sad thing is that they all knew it !!! If you research statements made by the masterminds of the plan you will see them talking openly about “a plan doomed to fail”, “a plan aiming at de-criminalizing Turkey regarding Cyprus and therefore help their International ambitions”, “a plan that served its purpose”. Turkey got “Cyprus”, the west got “access to Irag” (which was at the time denied if you remember) and we are still the pawns in the international game of chess.
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Kyri,
You may have a point about a TRNC political party not being allowed to direct voters towards something Turkey wouldn’t want, but it seem that the electorate here may have already made up their minds.
http://www.famagusta-gazette.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=69&twindow=&mad=&sdetail=10023&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=&pform=&sc=2350&hn=famagusta-gazette&he=.com
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Vaughan,
The electorate made up their minds, ok, however, will their chosen one persue his policy or just continue implementing Turkey’s?
This is the big issue here.
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Kyri,
I still think the question is just academic. The poll seems to show that TCs have made up their minds to say “No”, whatever Mr. Eroglu does or says whether its Turkeys line or not. Some TCs have told me they said “Yes” in 2004 and got shafted. Why would they vote “Yes” again?
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Vaughan,
With the help of the media opinions can change overnight.
I do not want to elaborate on the 2004 plan, why TCs said YES and why GCs said NO. I could be talking for ever.
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Kyri,
I also don’t want to go over old ground about why TCs said YES, but I will say that it rankles with them that it looked like GCs were rewarded despite saying NO, while they were left out in the cold despite saying YES.
I will be happy to wait until after any referendum at which point we might return to this discussion.
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